Presidential primary gives Utah Democrats a turn in the national spotlight - Salt Lake Tribune

Washington • Utah isn’t the biggest prize up for grabs on Super Tuesday.

It’s not even the 12th biggest prize for the Democratic presidential hopefuls vying to snatch up as many delegates as they can on their march to the nomination.

But, given the crowded field of candidates seeking momentum or battling to keep it, the state’s contest matters as shown by the rare campaign visits, the stream of ads and the excitement of voters casting a ballot in what is still a wide-open race.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent who is the front-runner for the Democratic nod, hopes to capture an overwhelming lead. And his team is counting on Utah, which gave most of its 29 delegates to Sanders four years ago, to help.

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, too, is gunning for Utah’s votes as he pours millions from his own fortune into a late bid for the nomination. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg are also in the hunt.

Former Vice President Joe Biden, who has struggled to gain a foothold with primary voters, appears a long shot, along with Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar. That’s not stopping Klobuchar from holding a rally in Salt Lake City on Monday morning. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii spent last weekend in Utah, but polls suggest she’s flown under the radar of most voters.

“The fact that we’re part of Super Tuesday has really changed the dynamic,” says Jeff Merchant, chairman of the Utah Democratic Party.

“It matters more that Utah’s been moved up from later in the cycle to the early Tuesday slot,” says David Magleby, a longtime political science professor at Brigham Young University. “Some Utah voters are actually receiving candidate mail, which hasn’t been around for a long time and more campaign visits, I think, than we had before they moved the date. So, yeah, I think it feels like we’re more relevant.”

Even if Utah isn’t offering the most delegates, candidates are paying attention to the state.

Bernie or bust?

While Hillary Clinton eventually won the Democratic nomination four years ago, she soundly lost the Utah primary to Sanders, who picked up nearly 80% of the vote and most of the state’s delegates.

The Vermont senator has so far racked up the most delegates in the nation’s first contests and is on the path, polls show, to take Utah again in the primary. A Salt Lake Tribune/Suffolk University poll from January had Sanders with 26.5% of the vote, double digits ahead of Warren and Biden. A Deseret News/Hinckley Institute poll published Friday had Sanders with 28%. Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Warren were in a close contest for second, with 19%, 18% and 15%, respectively.

Counting delegates

What Utahns need to know about Super Tuesday

Utah has 29 Democratic delegates up for grabs Tuesday, but it’s a tad complicated on how

they’re doled out.

A candidate has to win 15% of the vote statewide to compete for the three at-large delegates and then 15% in a congressional district to claim any delegates there. Those are divvied up based on the winning percentage of the vote.

The 4th Congressional District, represented by Democrat Ben McAdams, has seven delegates available to the highest vote-getters.

The state also has six superdelegates, or delegates who are free to vote for any candidate of their choice but only on the second round of balloting if a contender doesn't get the nomination outright.

Every delegate counts

“All of the candidates recognize that every one of these delegates is going to count,” says Merchant, the Utah Democratic chairman.

While Sanders has the lead so far nationally, it’s a small one. Super Tuesday could solidify his spot ahead of the pack but still leave him shy of the magic number that puts him over the top.

If Sanders doesn’t reach the 1,991 delegates needed to clinch and the delegate math is split among the senator and others, it could mean the party ends up with a brokered convention in Milwaukee in July. If no candidate has the nomination sewn up, delegates could break free after the first ballot.

So Super Tuesday means a lot for trying to avoid that scenario that may not play out well for a party hoping to retake the White House.

“Every candidate recognizes that the easiest way to make this happen is to do really well on Super Tuesday,” Merchant says. “And, as a result, they’re not leaving any delegate to chance.”

Trump wins (Republicans)

Republicans are also holding their primary Tuesday, but with an incumbent president, it’s not much of a contest.

Trump lost the Utah GOP caucus four years ago to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, though the president faces lesser-known competitors this time around and is expected to easily take the Super Tuesday primaries.

Former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld is challenging Trump for the GOP nod, though he knows it’s a long shot and is mainly doing it to offer an alternative.

Bernie wins the cash race

In modern times, Utah has served as more of an ATM for candidates than a destination to visit. That collection of cash continues even as multiple candidates have come in for public appearances and rallies. Sanders has so far raked in the most contributions.

Warren is next with nearly $367,000 raised from Utahns, followed by Buttigieg ($282,766) and Biden ($267,331).

In a switch from previous years, candidates are actually spending about as much money in the state as they raised, mainly fueled by Bloomberg who isn't taking donations and spending his own money to blanket the airwaves nationwide.

Bloomberg sweeps the ad race

Warren and Sanders have also spent money on TV commercials in the state.

The party of Sanders?

If Sanders cleans up with delegates on Tuesday, he could be in a prime spot to win the nomination of a party he technically doesn't belong to since he's not a registered Democrat. (There is no party registration in Vermont.)

And some longtime Democratic officials are worried what kind of impact the self-described democratic socialist could have on down-ballot races and whether he could draw interest from independents or Republicans who aren’t enamored with Trump.

Magleby, the BYU professor, sees a parallel with this scenario: the 1972 bid by George McGovern, who ran on an anti-Vietnam War platform and drew excitement from younger Americans. But that translated into a landslide for President Richard Nixon’s reelection. McGovern won only Massachusetts and the District of Columbia in the general election.

“I would connect the Sanders phenomenon to the George McGovern phenomenon of 1972,” Magleby says, noting that McGovern supporters were excited about their candidate but the party was not.

“Party regulars would tell you years afterwards that those people vanished so soon after the general election and never to be seen again,” Magleby says. “And so in subsequent cycles, it was hard to generate grassroots sort of party-related activity.”

Merchant says he views the primary contest as a “great opportunity for Utah Democrats to shine” and show how diverse and inclusive the party is.

And the Utah Democratic chairman says Sanders will need a team to help him accomplish his plans if he wins the party's nod and the White House.

“Even though a lot of people view Bernie as an outsider, my hope is that if he were to win the nomination, that he would recognize that the only way that he is going to be able to accomplish any part of his agenda is having Democrats” in office, Merchant says.

“If somebody like Bernie Sanders becomes the nominee, he’s going to need all the help he can get,” Merchant adds. “So my hope would be that he would engage in party building.”